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Trendlines: November 1, 2019

1. Recession Talk

With so much talk about when the next recession will hit the US economy, it is easy to understand all the uncertainty. In this  recent post from Ben Carlson at “A Wealth of Common Sense”, his team discusses key points worth remembering about recessions and market downturns. I suggest you take the time to watch the short video at the end of the article and listen for 2 main take-aways: a) it is impossible to time a recession and b) they are common occurrences that happen about 15% of the time. 

2. Construction Trend

Who hasn’t noticed all the construction taking place with upgrades to bridges and roads, and with new homes and apartments? When I ran across this article about all the new apartments going up in the suburbs of Philly (and the referenced piece in SAVVY Main Line), it struck me as a bit of a trend. The development of apartments throughout the US (read more here) is a movement that appears to be gathering momentum. Do you have friends who have shed home ownership and moved into a rental unit? Me too. I sense that this is due to a number of factors not the least of which is technology. Say what? Think of it this way: a) the internet has allowed the likes of Amazon deliveries to explode and for box retail stores to feel the pain, b) Uber and Lyft have redefined local travel and car ownership, c) and smart phones have shown how easy it is to order “groceries” on-line.  These are just some of the factors that point to the explosion in urban living and the popularity of apartment living. What Bob Dylan said in 1964 is still true today – The Times They Are A Changin. 

3. China Economy

The history of China dates back to 1250 BC in the Shang dynasty, but modern China as we know it covers the last 70-years.  This graphic depicts their growth in government and the economy. Don’t miss the narrative below the graph and the scale of global GDP figures at the bottom. This is particularly fascinating with so many headlines about the dynamics between the US and China.  

Trendlines – Jim Butler, CFP®, AIF®

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